Neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve any decisive military action in Ukraine this year, the UK's head of military intelligence has told the BBC.
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Speaking in a rare public interview, Lt Gen Sir Jim Hockenhull also said he had been keeping a very close eye on Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons.
On 23 February this year, Gen Hockenhull had been working late into the night. He cycled home at midnight, and went to bed at about 01:00.
He got a phone call an hour later saying there had been some odd indicators of activity on the Ukrainian border, so he got back on his bicycle and returned to work.
The confirmation came that Russia had indeed invaded its neighbour.
Minutes later, and still in the early hours of the morning, he was briefing Britain's prime minister and defence secretary on the beginning of Europe's biggest armed conflict since World War Two.
As the chief of Defence Intelligence for the past four years, Gen Hockenhull works in the shadows, running an organisation that deals with highly classified and secret information. The war in Ukraine has made its work and his job more important.
He says he became increasingly convinced that Russia was about to launch its invasion in November last year. That was when he thought "this is going to happen", he recalls.
The week before the invasion, he took the highly unusual decision of publishing a map predicting Russia's likely invasion plans on Twitter. It was a decision he says wasn't easy, but he was convinced there was a need to get information out into the public domain.
"It's important to get the truth out before the lies come," he says.